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Updated October 23, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 31, 2027
As of October 23, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 86.5%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 45.5%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $928 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 86.5% | +3.0 pts | $9.2K |
| By June 30, 2027 | 45.5% | — | $10.9K |
Total volume $20.1K · 24h volume $928 · Liquidity $20.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By June 30, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds
As of October 23, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 86.5%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 45.5%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $928 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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