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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Hodge Conjecture at 36.5%, followed by Hadamard Matrix Conjecture at 32.5%, Beal's Conjecture at 16.5%. The market has $31.2K in total volume and $2.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hodge Conjecture | 36.5% | +12.0 pts | $8.7K |
| Hadamard Matrix Conjecture | 32.5% | — | $1.6K |
| Beal's Conjecture | 16.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.3K |
| Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer | 14.5% | -0.5 pts | $6.9K |
| Strong Goldbach Conjecture | 13.5% | — | $555 |
| Ramsey Number R(5,5) | 12.5% | — | $717 |
| Collatz Conjecture | 9.5% | — | $1.7K |
| Odd Perfect Number | 9.5% | — | $1.4K |
| Twin Prime Conjecture | 9.5% | — | $798 |
| Riemann Hypothesis | 7.5% | — | $2.8K |
| Yang-Mills | 7.5% | — | $823 |
| Hadwiger-Nelson Problem | 5.5% | — | $1.6K |
| P versus NP | 4.5% | +1.4 pts | $1.1K |
| Legendre's Conjecture | 4.0% | -0.3 pts | $1.1K |
Total volume $31.2K · 24h volume $2.1K · Liquidity $23.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Hodge Conjecture ■ Hadamard Matrix Conjecture ■ Beal's Conjecture · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Science & Space odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Hodge Conjecture at 36.5%, followed by Hadamard Matrix Conjecture at 32.5%, Beal's Conjecture at 16.5%. The market has $31.2K in total volume and $2.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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