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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 65.5%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 52.5%, By February 28, 2027 at 34.5%. The market has $1.24M in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 65.5% | — | $28.6K |
| By June 30, 2027 | 52.5% | -1.0 pts | $21.0K |
| By February 28, 2027 | 34.5% | — | $3.6K |
| By January 31, 2027 | 22.5% | — | $3.9K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 18.5% | — | $191.3K |
| By September 30, 2026 | 0.6% | -0.4 pts | $388.4K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $607.0K |
Total volume $1.24M · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $57.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By February 28, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 65.5%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 52.5%, By February 28, 2027 at 34.5%. The market has $1.24M in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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