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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: January 7, 2027
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 7.9 or below at 79%, followed by 8.0 – 8.1 at 11.5%, 8.2 – 8.3 at 8.1%. The market has $24.0K in total volume and $2.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9 or below | 79% | — | $18.2K |
| 8.0 – 8.1 | 11.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.1K |
| 8.2 – 8.3 | 8.1% | +0.6 pts | $2.1K |
| 9.0 or above | 2.3% | +0.1 pts | $334 |
| 8.6 – 8.7 | 1.9% | -1.2 pts | $479 |
| 8.8 – 8.9 | 0.5% | — | $376 |
| 8.4 – 8.5 | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $374 |
Total volume $24.0K · 24h volume $2.6K · Liquidity $12.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 7.9 or below ■ 8.0 – 8.1 ■ 8.2 – 8.3 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Weather odds
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 7.9 or below at 79%, followed by 8.0 – 8.1 at 11.5%, 8.2 – 8.3 at 8.1%. The market has $24.0K in total volume and $2.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 7, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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