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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: January 9, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is October at 71.5%, followed by November at 24.5%, December at 4.5%. The market has $21.6K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | 71.5% | +2.0 pts | $10.9K |
| November | 24.5% | -2.0 pts | $7.7K |
| December | 4.5% | +1.5 pts | $2.1K |
| August | 0.7% | -0.9 pts | $911 |
Total volume $21.6K · 24h volume $4.1K · Liquidity $4.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ October ■ November ■ December · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338.
Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026.
If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months.
The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. If the figure for December 2026 is not available by January 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for a period of up to three (3) calendar days (ET) to allow the figure to be published. If no figure is published within that period, the December market will resolve to "No", and this market will resolve according to the month with the highest published total among August, October and November.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Weather odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is October at 71.5%, followed by November at 24.5%, December at 4.5%. The market has $21.6K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 9, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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