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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 22–23 at 36%, followed by 24–25 at 22%, <22 at 20%. The market has $696.5K in total volume and $84 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22–23 | 36% | +1.5 pts | $10.6K |
| 24–25 | 22% | -2.5 pts | $34.7K |
| <22 | 20% | -0.5 pts | $50.2K |
| 26–27 | 17.5% | — | $18.3K |
| 28–29 | 3.5% | — | $558.2K |
| 30–31 | 1.1% | — | $8.6K |
| 32+ | 0.6% | — | $15.9K |
Total volume $696.5K · 24h volume $84 · Liquidity $70.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 22–23 ■ 24–25 ■ <22 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 22–23 at 36%, followed by 24–25 at 22%, <22 at 20%. The market has $696.5K in total volume and $84 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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