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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is <5 at 51.5%, followed by 5-6 at 35%, 7-8 at 2.5%. The market has $513.9K in total volume and $16 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 51.5% | -2.5 pts | $102.9K |
| 5-6 | 35% | -2.5 pts | $117.4K |
| 7-8 | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $161.7K |
| >16 | 1.1% | — | $14.7K |
| 11-12 | 0.8% | — | $10.8K |
| 9-10 | 0.1% | — | $63.4K |
| 15-16 | <0.1% | — | $32.0K |
| 13-14 | <0.1% | — | $11.0K |
Total volume $513.9K · 24h volume $16 · Liquidity $16.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ <5 ■ 5-6 ■ 7-8 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is <5 at 51.5%, followed by 5-6 at 35%, 7-8 at 2.5%. The market has $513.9K in total volume and $16 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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