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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: May 1, 2027
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 3.56M–3.59M at 49.5%, followed by 3.53M–3.56M at 37.5%, 3.65M+ at 8.0%. The market has $21.9K in total volume and $574 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.56M–3.59M | 49.5% | +0.5 pts | $11.1K |
| 3.53M–3.56M | 37.5% | — | $4.3K |
| 3.65M+ | 8.0% | — | $851 |
| 3.59M–3.62M | 6.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.7K |
| 3.62M–3.65M | 1.3% | -1.0 pts | $864 |
| 3.50M–3.53M | 1.1% | — | $1.6K |
| <3.50M | 0.1% | — | $549 |
Total volume $21.9K · 24h volume $574 · Liquidity $39.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 3.56M–3.59M ■ 3.53M–3.56M ■ 3.65M+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of births in the United States in 2026, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027.
Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm
If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: The relevant data will be the total number of births in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 3.56M–3.59M at 49.5%, followed by 3.53M–3.56M at 37.5%, 3.65M+ at 8.0%. The market has $21.9K in total volume and $574 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is May 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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