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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.0-2.4% at 46.5%, followed by ≤1.9% at 23.5%, 3.0-3.4% at 9.3%. The market has $70.0K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0-2.4% | 46.5% | -19.5 pts | $31.5K |
| ≤1.9% | 23.5% | -5.0 pts | $18.8K |
| 3.0-3.4% | 9.3% | +9.2 pts | $3.3K |
| 2.5-2.9% | 5.8% | +3.9 pts | $11.9K |
| 4.0%+ | 0.7% | +0.3 pts | $2.7K |
| 3.5-3.9% | 0.4% | +0.4 pts | $1.8K |
Total volume $70.0K · 24h volume $4.1K · Liquidity $7.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 2.0-2.4% ■ ≤1.9% ■ 3.0-3.4% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.0-2.4% at 46.5%, followed by ≤1.9% at 23.5%, 3.0-3.4% at 9.3%. The market has $70.0K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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