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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 96%, followed by OpenAI at 4.9%, Perplexity at <0.1%. The market has $36.6K in total volume and $110 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 96% | +0.1 pts | $14.4K |
| OpenAI | 4.9% | +0.9 pts | $13.4K |
| Perplexity | <0.1% | — | $2.1K |
| Neuralink | <0.1% | — | $1.5K |
| Canva | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| Anduril | <0.1% | — | $916 |
| Databricks | <0.1% | — | $870 |
| Revolut | <0.1% | — | $707 |
| ByteDance | <0.1% | — | $656 |
| Stripe | <0.1% | — | $573 |
Total volume $36.6K · 24h volume $110 · Liquidity $68.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Anthropic ■ OpenAI ■ Perplexity · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on the last trading day of November 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the highest valuation, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market …
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · OpenAI odds · Anthropic odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 96%, followed by OpenAI at 4.9%, Perplexity at <0.1%. The market has $36.6K in total volume and $110 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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