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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Morgan Stanley at 75.5%, followed by Goldman Sachs at 14.3%, Citigroup at 0.6%. The market has $68.4K in total volume and $1.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 75.5% | -0.5 pts | $17.9K |
| Goldman Sachs | 14.3% | -0.1 pts | $13.3K |
| Citigroup | 0.6% | +0.5 pts | $5.4K |
| JPMorgan | 0.1% | — | $11.5K |
| Bank of America | 0.1% | — | $5.6K |
| Deutsche Bank | <0.1% | — | $4.2K |
| Barclays | <0.1% | — | $4.2K |
| UBS | <0.1% | — | $3.5K |
| Wells Fargo | <0.1% | — | $2.7K |
Total volume $68.4K · 24h volume $1.0K · Liquidity $19.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Morgan Stanley ■ Goldman Sachs ■ Citigroup · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Morgan Stanley at 75.5%, followed by Goldman Sachs at 14.3%, Citigroup at 0.6%. The market has $68.4K in total volume and $1.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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