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Updated October 8, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: December 4, 2026
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Indianapolis, IN by November 30 at 92.9%, followed by Denver, CO by November 30 at 91.3%, Buffalo, NY by November 30 at 89.4%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis, IN by November 30 | 92.9% | -4.0 pts | $866 |
| Denver, CO by November 30 | 91.3% | -3.8 pts | $183 |
| Buffalo, NY by November 30 | 89.4% | -3.5 pts | $174 |
| Pittsburgh, PA by November 30 | 87.5% | +0.5 pts | $836 |
| Pittsburgh, PA by November 15 | 87% | -0.5 pts | $896 |
| Detroit, MI by November 30 | 86% | -0.5 pts | $564 |
| Minneapolis, MN by November 30 | 85% | -0.5 pts | $624 |
| Kansas City, MO by November 30 | 84.5% | -1.5 pts | $478 |
| Chicago, IL by November 30 | 84.5% | -0.5 pts | $217 |
| Boston, MA by November 30 | 83% | +5.0 pts | $1.2K |
| Salt Lake City, UT by November 30 | 79.5% | +1.5 pts | $583 |
| Chicago, IL by November 15 | 78.5% | — | $625 |
| Minneapolis, MN by October 31 | 78% | +9.5 pts | $727 |
| Detroit, MI by November 15 | 77.5% | -4.5 pts | $2.3K |
| Cincinnati, OH by November 30 | 77% | +2.5 pts | $501 |
16 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $1.9K · Liquidity $10.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Indianapolis, IN by November 30 ■ Denver, CO by November 30 ■ Buffalo, NY by November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026).
Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Indianapolis, IN by November 30 at 92.9%, followed by Denver, CO by November 30 at 91.3%, Buffalo, NY by November 30 at 89.4%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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