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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 30, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 88.5%, followed by By October 31 at 75.5%, By October 15 at 55.5%. The market has $56.8K in total volume and $4.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | 88.5% | — | $10.5K |
| By October 31 | 75.5% | +10.5 pts | $22.8K |
| By October 15 | 55.5% | +10.5 pts | $277 |
| By September 30 | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $23.3K |
Total volume $56.8K · 24h volume $4.7K · Liquidity $5.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 ■ By October 15 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 88.5%, followed by By October 31 at 75.5%, By October 15 at 55.5%. The market has $56.8K in total volume and $4.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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