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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: October 2, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.4-4.6m sq km at 98.6%, followed by 4.6-4.8m sq km at 0.8%, <4m sq km at 0.6%. The market has $91.0K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4-4.6m sq km | 98.6% | +0.1 pts | $6.1K |
| 4.6-4.8m sq km | 0.8% | +0.5 pts | $11.4K |
| <4m sq km | 0.6% | -0.2 pts | $37.4K |
| 4.0-4.2m sq km | 0.4% | — | $9.4K |
| 5m+ sq km | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $16.5K |
| 4.2-4.4m sq km | 0.3% | -0.4 pts | $4.8K |
| 4.8-5m sq km | 0.1% | — | $5.4K |
Total volume $91.0K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $25.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4.4-4.6m sq km ■ 4.6-4.8m sq km ■ <4m sq km · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.4-4.6m sq km at 98.6%, followed by 4.6-4.8m sq km at 0.8%, <4m sq km at 0.6%. The market has $91.0K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 2, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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