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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 8.7%. The market has $944.8K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 8.7% | +0.6 pts | $14.7K |
| By March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.5 pts | $390.1K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $291.6K |
| By April 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.1 pts | $235.7K |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $12.7K |
Total volume $944.8K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $17.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 8.7%. The market has $944.8K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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