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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.0%, followed by September 30 at 1.1%. The market has $30.4K in total volume and $553 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4.0% | -0.2 pts | $7.7K |
| September 30 | 1.1% | +0.4 pts | $22.7K |
Total volume $30.4K · 24h volume $553 · Liquidity $7.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31 ■ September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.0%, followed by September 30 at 1.1%. The market has $30.4K in total volume and $553 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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