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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is PL at 88%, followed by MDB at 10.3%, PODEMOS at 1.1%. The market has $309.1K in total volume and $6.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL | 88% | +4.0 pts | $264.7K |
| MDB | 10.3% | -0.2 pts | $9.5K |
| PODEMOS | 1.1% | -2.0 pts | $4.5K |
| UNIÃO | 0.8% | -0.2 pts | $3.2K |
| NOVO | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $3.7K |
| PSDB | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $3.2K |
| PSD | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $3.1K |
| PP | 0.4% | +0.2 pts | $3.1K |
| REPUBLICANOS | 0.1% | — | $4.0K |
| PDT | 0.1% | — | $3.8K |
| PT | 0.1% | — | $3.5K |
| PSB | 0.1% | — | $2.9K |
Total volume $309.1K · 24h volume $6.7K · Liquidity $375.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ PL ■ MDB ■ PODEMOS · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Brazilian Senate, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is PL at 88%, followed by MDB at 10.3%, PODEMOS at 1.1%. The market has $309.1K in total volume and $6.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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