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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 53.5%, followed by Hendrik Wüst at 16.5%, Markus Söder at 15.5%. The market has $43.6K in total volume and $8.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 53.5% | +8.0 pts | $32.9K |
| Hendrik Wüst | 16.5% | -9.0 pts | $5.0K |
| Markus Söder | 15.5% | — | $2.4K |
| Boris Pistorius | 8.5% | — | $683 |
| Alice Weidel | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $429 |
| Heidi Reichinnek | 2.9% | -0.4 pts | $238 |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | 2.8% | +0.1 pts | $228 |
| Felix Banaszak | 2.5% | -0.6 pts | $448 |
| Katharina Dröge | 0.6% | — | $263 |
| Carsten Linnemann | 0.6% | — | $236 |
| Tino Chrupalla | 0.6% | — | $228 |
| Lars Klingbeil | 0.5% | — | $264 |
| Jens Spahn | 0.5% | — | $238 |
Total volume $43.6K · 24h volume $8.8K · Liquidity $303.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Next Chancellor before 2028 ■ Hendrik Wüst ■ Markus Söder · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Germany odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 53.5%, followed by Hendrik Wüst at 16.5%, Markus Söder at 15.5%. The market has $43.6K in total volume and $8.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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