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Resolved market · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on By September 28, By October 31, By December 31, By September 30, By September 29, By October 15, after $76.6K of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By September 28 | 100% | +36.4 pts | $17.5K |
| By October 31 | 100% | +2.5 pts | $14.8K |
| By December 31 | 100% | +0.1 pts | $13.5K |
| By September 30 | 100% | +14.0 pts | $11.4K |
| By September 29 | 100% | +13.5 pts | $3.3K |
| By October 15 | 100% | +1.9 pts | $1.1K |
| By September 25 | 0.0% | -1.6 pts | $6.3K |
| By August 31 | 0.0% | -39.5 pts | $3.7K |
| By September 27 | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $3.3K |
| By September 23 | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $1.7K |
Total volume $76.6K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on By September 28, By October 31, By December 31, By September 30, By September 29, By October 15, after $76.6K of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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