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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 1480+ at 94.1%, followed by 1490+ at 91.7%, 1495+ at 78.5%. The market has $188.8K in total volume and $5.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1480+ | 94.1% | +0.4 pts | $29.5K |
| 1490+ | 91.7% | +12.5 pts | $44.7K |
| 1495+ | 78.5% | -6.5 pts | $35.8K |
| 1500+ | 62% | -2.5 pts | $34.6K |
| 1510+ | 37.1% | -0.6 pts | $44.2K |
Total volume $188.8K · 24h volume $5.1K · Liquidity $11.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1480+ ■ 1490+ ■ 1495+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 1480+ at 94.1%, followed by 1490+ at 91.7%, 1495+ at 78.5%. The market has $188.8K in total volume and $5.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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