Home › Polymarket odds › Tech & AI
Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 06:03 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 79%, followed by By October 23 at 65%, By October 15 at 34%. The market has $1.36M in total volume and $25.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 79% | -4.5 pts | $37.9K |
| By October 23 | 65% | -9.5 pts | $1.5K |
| By October 15 | 34% | -17.0 pts | $21.7K |
| By October 9 | 17.5% | -31.0 pts | $2.1K |
| By September 30 | 3.5% | -4.5 pts | $129.8K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $347.2K |
| By August 14 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $246.0K |
| By August 7 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $148.8K |
| By August 21 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $127.4K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $92.5K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.4 pts | $57.3K |
| By June 26 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $19.7K |
| By July 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.5 pts | $18.8K |
| By July 17 (settled) | 0.0% | -4.8 pts | $18.5K |
| By July 24 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $18.3K |
9 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.36M · 24h volume $25.4K · Liquidity $30.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By October 23 ■ By October 15 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 06:03 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 79%, followed by By October 23 at 65%, By October 15 at 34%. The market has $1.36M in total volume and $25.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released/">Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? — Polymarket odds”, September 24, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released.svg" alt="Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog