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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is <58 at 57%, followed by 61-63 at 17.1%, 70-72 at 7.5%. The market has $34.8K in total volume and $17.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| <58 | 57% | +5.5 pts | $16.2K |
| 61-63 | 17.1% | +5.5 pts | $1.5K |
| 70-72 | 7.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.3K |
| 64-66 | 6.5% | -4.8 pts | $4.7K |
| 58-60 | 3.5% | -11.1 pts | $9.3K |
| 67-69 | 2.8% | +0.2 pts | $414 |
| 73+ | 1.2% | +0.1 pts | $382 |
Total volume $34.8K · 24h volume $17.2K · Liquidity $68.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ <58 ■ 61-63 ■ 70-72 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the Knesset held by the parties included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.
The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Only the seats attributed to the government's parties at that moment will be considered; seats gained or lost afterward will not affect the resolution of this market. Seats will be attributed to parties according to the Knesset factions in place at the time of that vote.
A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not count toward the government's seat total.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is <58 at 57%, followed by 61-63 at 17.1%, 70-72 at 7.5%. The market has $34.8K in total volume and $17.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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