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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Chuck Schumer at 39.5%, followed by John Thune at 26.5%, Brian Schatz at 11%. The market has $168.5K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | 39.5% | +0.5 pts | $15.3K |
| John Thune | 26.5% | -6.0 pts | $33.0K |
| Brian Schatz | 11% | -0.5 pts | $4.5K |
| Patty Murray | 7.6% | +6.8 pts | $5.8K |
| Cory Booker | 4.0% | -0.7 pts | $5.3K |
| Tom Cotton | 3.0% | +0.7 pts | $8.1K |
| Steve Daines | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $25.1K |
| John Barrasso | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $4.9K |
| Chris Van Hollen | 1.2% | — | $859 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 0.2% | — | $5.1K |
| Mark Kelly | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $5.4K |
| Lindsey Graham (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $55.1K |
Total volume $168.5K · 24h volume $3.3K · Liquidity $257.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Chuck Schumer ■ John Thune ■ Brian Schatz · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate.
If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Chuck Schumer at 39.5%, followed by John Thune at 26.5%, Brian Schatz at 11%. The market has $168.5K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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