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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Chuck Schumer at 92.5%, followed by Chris Van Hollen at 4.5%, Brian Schatz at 2.5%. The market has $412.9K in total volume and $89.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | 92.5% | — | $209.1K |
| Chris Van Hollen | 4.5% | -0.8 pts | $28.9K |
| Brian Schatz | 2.5% | -0.7 pts | $12.0K |
| Cory Booker | 0.2% | — | $8.4K |
| John Thune | <0.1% | — | $38.5K |
| Steve Daines | <0.1% | — | $26.0K |
| Tom Cotton | <0.1% | — | $9.5K |
| Amy Klobuchar | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $7.3K |
| Patty Murray | <0.1% | — | $7.0K |
| Mark Kelly | <0.1% | — | $5.7K |
| John Barrasso | <0.1% | — | $5.5K |
| Lindsey Graham (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $55.1K |
Total volume $412.9K · 24h volume $89.5K · Liquidity $342.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Chuck Schumer ■ Chris Van Hollen ■ Brian Schatz · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate.
If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Chuck Schumer at 92.5%, followed by Chris Van Hollen at 4.5%, Brian Schatz at 2.5%. The market has $412.9K in total volume and $89.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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