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Updated October 22, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2028
As of October 22, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Yulia Navalnaya at 10%, followed by Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 8.7%, Donald Trump at 8.5%. The market has $33.8K in total volume and $15.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yulia Navalnaya | 10% | -0.5 pts | $5.7K |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 8.7% | — | $2.2K |
| Donald Trump | 8.5% | — | $7.7K |
| UNRWA | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $101 |
| Doctors Without Borders | 7.0% | — | $51 |
| António Guterres | 6.5% | — | $391 |
| International Criminal Court | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $51 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 5.5% | +1.4 pts | $15.1K |
| Jimmy Lai | 5.5% | — | $241 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 5.5% | +0.5 pts | $51 |
| Elon Musk | 5.5% | -0.1 pts | $391 |
| Greta Thunberg | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $389 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 2.7% | -1.1 pts | $426 |
| Julian Assange | 2.5% | — | $1.1K |
Total volume $33.8K · 24h volume $15.6K · Liquidity $417.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yulia Navalnaya ■ Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms ■ Donald Trump · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner.
If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 22, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Yulia Navalnaya at 10%, followed by Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 8.7%, Donald Trump at 8.5%. The market has $33.8K in total volume and $15.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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