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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.8% (No 98.2%), with $165.8K traded in total and $728 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.8% | -1.8 pts | $165.8K |
| No | 98.2% | +1.8 pts | — |
Total volume $165.8K · 24h volume $728 · Liquidity $17.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.8% (No 98.2%), with $165.8K traded in total and $728 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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