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Updated October 22, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: March 15, 2027
As of October 22, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is La Nieve - The Black Ball at 90.5%, followed by This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut at 74.5%, I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 at 67.5%. The market has $32.0K in total volume and $18.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Nieve - The Black Ball | 90.5% | +0.5 pts | $722 |
| This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut | 74.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.0K |
| I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 | 67.5% | -1.0 pts | $522 |
| By Any Means - By Any Means | 56.5% | +1.5 pts | $754 |
| How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad | 54.5% | — | $1.3K |
| Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 52.5% | +20.5 pts | $207 |
| Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth! | 34% | — | $1.7K |
| When I'm Home - The Odyssey | 31% | +8.5 pts | $2.9K |
| Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk | 30.5% | -2.5 pts | $822 |
| Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn | 22% | -0.5 pts | $1.8K |
| Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights | 3.9% | -20.1 pts | $18.3K |
Total volume $32.0K · 24h volume $18.8K · Liquidity $6.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ La Nieve - The Black Ball ■ This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut ■ I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song. If a song is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Awards odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 22, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is La Nieve - The Black Ball at 90.5%, followed by This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut at 74.5%, I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 at 67.5%. The market has $32.0K in total volume and $18.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 15, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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