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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: January 8, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 70-120mm at 68%, followed by 120-210mm at 25.7%, 210mm+ at 3.9%. The market has $24.1K in total volume and $8.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70-120mm | 68% | +14.5 pts | $9.6K |
| 120-210mm | 25.7% | -9.7 pts | $4.5K |
| 210mm+ | 3.9% | -7.2 pts | $1.3K |
| <20mm | 1.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K |
| 40-50mm | 1.1% | -0.5 pts | $2.4K |
| 20-40mm | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $1.0K |
| 50-70mm | <0.1% | -4.2 pts | $3.3K |
Total volume $24.1K · 24h volume $8.2K · Liquidity $10.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 70-120mm ■ 120-210mm ■ 210mm+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Weather odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 70-120mm at 68%, followed by 120-210mm at 25.7%, 210mm+ at 3.9%. The market has $24.1K in total volume and $8.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 8, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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