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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 6, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is PQ at 95%, followed by CAQ at 3.7%, PLQ at 1.7%. The market has $1.04M in total volume and $9.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 95% | +2.5 pts | $185.6K |
| CAQ | 3.7% | -2.8 pts | $160.3K |
| PLQ | 1.7% | +0.4 pts | $161.5K |
| PCQ | 0.4% | +0.3 pts | $273.4K |
| PVQ | <0.1% | — | $157.5K |
| QS | <0.1% | — | $106.5K |
Total volume $1.04M · 24h volume $9.4K · Liquidity $206.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ PQ ■ CAQ ■ PLQ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is PQ at 95%, followed by CAQ at 3.7%, PLQ at 1.7%. The market has $1.04M in total volume and $9.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 6, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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