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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 3, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is ≤47 at 39.5%, followed by 48 at 18%, 49 at 13.5%. The market has $2.97M in total volume and $7.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤47 | 39.5% | +1.5 pts | $239.8K |
| 48 | 18% | -0.5 pts | $52.4K |
| 49 | 13.5% | — | $54.5K |
| 50 | 11% | -0.5 pts | $130.1K |
| 51 | 8.5% | +0.5 pts | $233.2K |
| 52 | 5.7% | +0.5 pts | $606.9K |
| 53 | 3.9% | +0.3 pts | $88.1K |
| 54 | 2.4% | — | $781.2K |
| 55 | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $445.8K |
| 56 | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $200.6K |
| 57+ | 0.5% | — | $139.5K |
Total volume $2.97M · 24h volume $7.7K · Liquidity $341.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ≤47 ■ 48 ■ 49 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · World Elections odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is ≤47 at 39.5%, followed by 48 at 18%, 49 at 13.5%. The market has $2.97M in total volume and $7.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 3, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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