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Resolved market · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 31, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on By October 31, By December 31, By November 30, By November 15, after $3.21M of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 100% | — | $2.62M |
| By December 31 | 100% | +7.0 pts | $93.5K |
| By November 30 | 100% | +10.9 pts | $90.1K |
| By November 15 | 100% | +18.4 pts | $9.6K |
| By September 30 | 0.0% | -3.2 pts | $194.4K |
| By September 15 | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $98.8K |
| By October 15 | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $89.2K |
| By August 31 | 0.0% | -2.4 pts | $21.8K |
Total volume $3.21M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Geopolitics odds
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on By October 31, By December 31, By November 30, By November 15, after $3.21M of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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