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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.6% (No 95.4%), with $29.3K traded in total and $934 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.6% | +3.2 pts | $29.3K |
| No | 95.4% | -3.2 pts | — |
Total volume $29.3K · 24h volume $934 · Liquidity $3.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.6% (No 95.4%), with $29.3K traded in total and $934 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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