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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: October 2, 2026
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 50m+ at 78%, followed by 60m+ at 23.5%, 70m+ at 5.5%. The market has $33.2K in total volume and $30.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50m+ | 78% | -3.0 pts | $5.0K |
| 60m+ | 23.5% | -50.5 pts | $3.0K |
| 70m+ | 5.5% | -26.0 pts | $7.4K |
| 80m+ | 1.8% | -24.6 pts | $7.6K |
| 90m+ | 1.1% | -16.4 pts | $7.5K |
| 100m+ | 0.9% | -36.6 pts | $2.7K |
Total volume $33.2K · 24h volume $30.9K · Liquidity $13.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 50m+ ■ 60m+ ■ 70m+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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"Patient Zero" (Taylor Swift) releases September 25, 2026 as part of "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Patient Zero"'s cumulative global Spotify streams from its release date (September 25, 2026) through the end of its first week (October 1, 2026) are greater than or equal to the specified amount, as displayed at 12:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Spotify's official charts. If this resolution source is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. Billboard, Luminate) may be used instead.
If there is no reliable streaming figure available by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Music odds · Pop Culture odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 50m+ at 78%, followed by 60m+ at 23.5%, 70m+ at 5.5%. The market has $33.2K in total volume and $30.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 2, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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