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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 8, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 0.8% (No 99.2%), with $32.2K traded in total and $6.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.8% | -0.6 pts | $32.2K |
| No | 99.2% | +0.6 pts | — |
Total volume $32.2K · 24h volume $6.2K · Liquidity $21.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 0.8% (No 99.2%), with $32.2K traded in total and $6.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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