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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.5% (No 95.5%), with $51.0K traded in total and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.5% | -2.4 pts | $51.0K |
| No | 95.5% | +2.4 pts | — |
Total volume $51.0K · 24h volume $1.4K · Liquidity $17.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.5% (No 95.5%), with $51.0K traded in total and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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