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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.4% (No 95.6%), with $532.4K traded in total and $475 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.4% | -0.2 pts | $532.4K |
| No | 95.6% | +0.2 pts | — |
Total volume $532.4K · 24h volume $475 · Liquidity $22.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.4% (No 95.6%), with $532.4K traded in total and $475 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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