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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 27.5%, followed by By September 30 at 3.1%. The market has $370.0K in total volume and $789 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 27.5% | -0.5 pts | $10.9K |
| By September 30 | 3.1% | -3.4 pts | $28.9K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $241.4K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $88.9K |
Total volume $370.0K · 24h volume $789 · Liquidity $17.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Iran odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 27.5%, followed by By September 30 at 3.1%. The market has $370.0K in total volume and $789 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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