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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 93.5%, followed by October 31 at 87.5%, September 30 at 81.5%. The market has $298.6K in total volume and $20.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 93.5% | +2.5 pts | $279.7K |
| October 31 | 87.5% | +4.5 pts | $6.1K |
| September 30 | 81.5% | +5.0 pts | $12.8K |
Total volume $298.6K · 24h volume $20.4K · Liquidity $74.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31 ■ October 31 ■ September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and the listed date 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 93.5%, followed by October 31 at 87.5%, September 30 at 81.5%. The market has $298.6K in total volume and $20.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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