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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 9.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.9%. The market has $49.2K in total volume and $324 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 9.5% | — | $20.4K |
| December 31, 2026 | 2.9% | +0.4 pts | $28.8K |
Total volume $49.2K · 24h volume $324 · Liquidity $85.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ June 30, 2027 ■ December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 9.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.9%. The market has $49.2K in total volume and $324 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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