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Polymarket week in review: November 9 – November 15, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update November 9, 00:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of November 9 – November 15, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory — Hinojosa 6%+ 3.6% → 98.5% (+94.8 points). 74 new markets opened in the seven days to November 9.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory	Hinojosa 6%+	3.6%	98.5%	+94.8 pts
Tennessee Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 0-5%	2.6%	97.5%	+94.8 pts
LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?	Raman 8-12%	2.6%	97.2%	+94.7 pts
TN-04 House Election Winner	Victoria Broderick (D)	1.1%	95%	+93.9 pts
Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?	$300M	6.9%	99.9%+	+93.1 pts
AL-03 House Election Margin of Victory	Republican 25-30%	4.2%	97.2%	+93.1 pts
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory	Talarico 12%+	2.7%	94.6%	+91.9 pts
SC-03 House Election Margin of Victory	Republican 25-30%	5.4%	96.9%	+91.5 pts
NJ-05 House Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 25-30%	5.8%	97.2%	+91.5 pts
TX-05 House Election Margin of Victory	Republican 0-5%	6.4%	97.8%	+91.3 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group C Winner	Iran	82.5%	3.4%	-79.1 pts
NC-05 House Election Winner	Virginia Foxx (R)	82%	3.5%	-78.5 pts
Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner	Loranne Ausley	75.5%	0.2%	-75.3 pts
AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group D Winner	Australia	78%	4.5%	-73.5 pts
Kansas Governor Election Winner	Ty Masterson (R)	73.5%	0.2%	-73.2 pts
#2 Spotify Artist in November?	Rihanna	79%	6.5%	-72.5 pts
AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group F Winner	Japan	75.5%	6.9%	-68.6 pts
AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group E Winner	South Korea	68%	1.7%	-66.3 pts
FL-09 House Election Winner	Dan Green (R)	66.5%	0.4%	-66.2 pts
Lima Mayoral Election Winner	Rafael López Aliaga	71.7%	6.5%	-65.1 pts

New markets

→ US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) December 31 79.5%
→ Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon? By November 12 (11:59 PM ET) 98%
→ US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? Through November 6 99.1%
→ Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State? By March 31, 2027 24.5%
→ Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31? Yes 15.5%
→ Total commitments for the Mori Finance public sale on MetaDAO >1M 97.5%
→ Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government? Benjamin Netanyahu 58%
→ House Majority Leader of the next Congress? Katherine Clark 96%
→ Eurovision Asia Winner 2026 Malaysia 54.5%
→ PGL Major Singapore 2026: Winner Vitality 28.5%
→ Nozempic 2: Who loses the most weight? Cuffem 53.5%
→ Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released? No release by November 30 69%
→ Israel military action against Lebanon? November 8 98.5%
→ Next US president's age at inauguration? 40+ 88.5%
→ Jensen Huang divorce in 2026? Yes 8.5%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All weekly recaps

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