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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Benjamin Netanyahu at 58.5%, followed by No second mandate at 40.5%, Yair Golan at 1.0%. The market has $23.9K in total volume and $16.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 58.5% | +23.5 pts | $5.8K |
| No second mandate | 40.5% | -7.5 pts | $4.5K |
| Yair Golan | 1.0% | -6.5 pts | $751 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 0.6% | — | $773 |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.5% | — | $1.1K |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.5% | — | $785 |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.5% | — | $749 |
| Yariv Levin | 0.5% | — | $597 |
| Naftali Bennett | 0.5% | -0.6 pts | $1.1K |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.0K |
| Eli Cohen | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $804 |
| Benny Gantz | 0.5% | -1.7 pts | $803 |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $785 |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $777 |
| Yair Lapid | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $729 |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $23.9K · 24h volume $16.1K · Liquidity $85.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Benjamin Netanyahu ■ No second mandate ■ Yair Golan · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Legislative elections were held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the second individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election.
Extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked with forming a government again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count; only a mandate given to a different individual will count as the second mandate.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”.
If the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Benjamin Netanyahu at 58.5%, followed by No second mandate at 40.5%, Yair Golan at 1.0%. The market has $23.9K in total volume and $16.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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