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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 35 to 49 at 58.5%, followed by 50 or more at 24.1%, 20 to 34 at 17.9%. The market has $20.8K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 to 49 | 58.5% | +13.0 pts | $4.5K |
| 50 or more | 24.1% | -2.3 pts | $2.2K |
| 20 to 34 | 17.9% | +2.8 pts | $9.4K |
| Fewer than 20 | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $4.6K |
Total volume $20.8K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $2.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 35 to 49 ■ 50 or more ■ 20 to 34 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 35 to 49 at 58.5%, followed by 50 or more at 24.1%, 20 to 34 at 17.9%. The market has $20.8K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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