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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is $1.25T–$1.5T at 22.1%, followed by $1.75T–$2.0T at 19%, <$1T at 16.9%. The market has $209.7K in total volume and $11.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 22.1% | +12.4 pts | $12.3K |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 19% | +2.5 pts | $32.9K |
| <$1T | 16.9% | -0.8 pts | $50.1K |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 15.8% | +1.1 pts | $14.5K |
| $2.5T+ | 15% | +0.7 pts | $60.6K |
| $1.0T–$1.25T | 10% | +4.0 pts | $27.3K |
| $2.0T–$2.25T | 5.7% | -3.8 pts | $3.1K |
| $2.25T–$2.5T | 5.1% | +0.4 pts | $8.9K |
Total volume $209.7K · 24h volume $11.7K · Liquidity $47.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $1.25T–$1.5T ■ $1.75T–$2.0T ■ <$1T · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · OpenAI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is $1.25T–$1.5T at 22.1%, followed by $1.75T–$2.0T at 19%, <$1T at 16.9%. The market has $209.7K in total volume and $11.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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