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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $OPAI at 49%, followed by $OAI at 42%, $OA at 20.8%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $814 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $OPAI | 49% | +7.0 pts | $6.3K |
| $OAI | 42% | -3.0 pts | $6.5K |
| $OA | 20.8% | -7.0 pts | $2.6K |
| $CGPT | 17.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.4K |
| $AAGI | 4.9% | — | $537 |
| $AIX | 4.7% | +0.1 pts | $720 |
| $LLM | 2.4% | — | $1.4K |
| $AIGI | 0.2% | — | $696 |
Total volume $20.1K · 24h volume $814 · Liquidity $9.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $OPAI ■ $OAI ■ $OA · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by OpenAI in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
An official announcement from OpenAI that it will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.
If a ticker used by OpenAI in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if OpenAI uses a ticker symbol of $OPAI.A or $OPAIA, this market will resolve to $OPAI).
If OpenAI announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $OPAI.A and $OPAI.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until OpenAI's first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.
If OpenAI IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · AI odds · OpenAI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $OPAI at 49%, followed by $OAI at 42%, $OA at 20.8%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $814 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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