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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 at 94.5%, followed by September 21 to September 25, 2026 at 3.9%, September 26 to September 30, 2026 at 2.0%. The market has $40.1K in total volume and $720 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 | 94.5% | +3.0 pts | $12.4K |
| September 21 to September 25, 2026 | 3.9% | +1.5 pts | $9.6K |
| September 26 to September 30, 2026 | 2.0% | -2.0 pts | $3.9K |
| September 16 to September 20, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $12.1K |
| September 11 to September 15, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.4K |
| September 1 to September 10, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $611 |
Total volume $40.1K · 24h volume $720 · Liquidity $2.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 ■ September 21 to September 25, 2026 ■ September 26 to September 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 at 94.5%, followed by September 21 to September 25, 2026 at 3.9%, September 26 to September 30, 2026 at 2.0%. The market has $40.1K in total volume and $720 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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