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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is No return before November 1, 2026 at 59.5%, followed by October 1 - 31, 2026 at 36.5%, September 15 - 30, 2026 at 1.7%. The market has $66.0K in total volume and $13.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No return before November 1, 2026 | 59.5% | -13.0 pts | $14.9K |
| October 1 - 31, 2026 | 36.5% | +9.0 pts | $25.3K |
| September 15 - 30, 2026 | 1.7% | -0.3 pts | $18.0K |
| Before September 15, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $7.7K |
Total volume $66.0K · 24h volume $13.3K · Liquidity $30.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No return before November 1, 2026 ■ October 1 - 31, 2026 ■ September 15 - 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is No return before November 1, 2026 at 59.5%, followed by October 1 - 31, 2026 at 36.5%, September 15 - 30, 2026 at 1.7%. The market has $66.0K in total volume and $13.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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