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Updated October 2, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 7th-9th at 39%, followed by 10th-12th at 34.5%, 6th or higher at 8.0%. The market has $20.2K in total volume and $938 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7th-9th | 39% | -0.5 pts | $3.1K |
| 10th-12th | 34.5% | +0.5 pts | $7.2K |
| 6th or higher | 8.0% | -3.5 pts | $9.0K |
| Below 15th | 5.3% | +0.6 pts | $411 |
| 13th-15th | 4.0% | +0.1 pts | $413 |
Total volume $20.2K · 24h volume $938 · Liquidity $6.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 7th-9th ■ 10th-12th ■ 6th or higher · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 7th-9th at 39%, followed by 10th-12th at 34.5%, 6th or higher at 8.0%. The market has $20.2K in total volume and $938 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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