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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: March 2, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 at 75%, followed by 2 at 24%, 3 at 0.9%. The market has $3.49M in total volume and $7.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75% | +0.5 pts | $633.3K |
| 2 | 24% | +1.0 pts | $421.4K |
| 3 | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $510.8K |
| 4 | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $532.6K |
| 6 or lower | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $544.9K |
| 5 | 0.1% | — | $849.5K |
Total volume $3.49M · 24h volume $7.4K · Liquidity $218.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1 ■ 2 ■ 3 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 at 75%, followed by 2 at 24%, 3 at 0.9%. The market has $3.49M in total volume and $7.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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