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Updated October 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mistral at 10.9%, followed by Alibaba at 7.1%, Google at 6.0%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $1.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI (settled) | 100% | +15.4 pts | $2.8K |
| Mistral | 10.9% | -0.3 pts | $639 |
| Alibaba | 7.1% | -18.7 pts | $567 |
| 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K | |
| SpaceXAI | 3.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K |
| Anthropic | 3.2% | -9.2 pts | $3.9K |
| Z.ai | 2.9% | — | $621 |
| DeepSeek | 2.8% | +0.2 pts | $855 |
| ByteDance | 2.6% | +0.8 pts | $950 |
| Moonshot | 2.6% | -0.6 pts | $723 |
| Amazon | 2.3% | — | $2.0K |
| Meta | 1.9% | -5.9 pts | $2.0K |
| Meituan | 1.7% | — | $534 |
| Baidu | 1.5% | — | $507 |
| Microsoft | 1.5% | — | $1.9K |
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $1.0K · Liquidity $5.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Mistral ■ Alibaba ■ Google · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced.
The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mistral at 10.9%, followed by Alibaba at 7.1%, Google at 6.0%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $1.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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