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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Google at 31%, followed by Moonshot at 28%, Microsoft at 21.5%. The market has $78.9K in total volume and $6.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | +4.0 pts | $13.6K | |
| Moonshot | 28% | +23.5 pts | $12.1K |
| Microsoft | 21.5% | +2.0 pts | $6.7K |
| SpaceXAI | 21.5% | +7.0 pts | $6.1K |
| DeepSeek | 21.5% | +16.5 pts | $3.7K |
| Meta | 19.5% | — | $3.5K |
| Meituan | 19.5% | +15.0 pts | $1.2K |
| Baidu | 19.5% | +13.0 pts | $1.1K |
| Alibaba | 17.9% | +11.9 pts | $5.1K |
| Z.ai | 17% | +10.5 pts | $2.7K |
| ByteDance | 8.5% | — | $4.5K |
| Amazon | 7.5% | -3.5 pts | $8.2K |
| Mistral | 2.0% | -2.3 pts | $10.4K |
Total volume $78.9K · 24h volume $6.2K · Liquidity $4.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Google ■ Moonshot ■ Microsoft · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Google at 31%, followed by Moonshot at 28%, Microsoft at 21.5%. The market has $78.9K in total volume and $6.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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