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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: September 30, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 98.5%, followed by OpenAI at 1.2%, Google at 0.2%. The market has $3.89M in total volume and $89.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 98.5% | +0.2 pts | $895.4K |
| OpenAI | 1.2% | -0.2 pts | $739.4K |
| 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $363.9K | |
| Meta | 0.1% | — | $452.1K |
| SpaceXAI | <0.1% | — | $349.8K |
| DeepSeek | <0.1% | — | $182.2K |
| Alibaba | <0.1% | — | $181.4K |
| Z.ai | <0.1% | — | $139.7K |
| ByteDance | <0.1% | — | $90.0K |
| Moonshot | <0.1% | — | $83.8K |
| Tencent | <0.1% | — | $71.1K |
| Baidu | <0.1% | — | $65.0K |
| Microsoft | <0.1% | — | $44.7K |
| Nvidia | <0.1% | — | $40.6K |
| Mistral | <0.1% | — | $36.3K |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $3.89M · 24h volume $89.9K · Liquidity $1.62M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Anthropic ■ OpenAI ■ Google · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds · Anthropic odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 98.5%, followed by OpenAI at 1.2%, Google at 0.2%. The market has $3.89M in total volume and $89.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is September 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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